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Prediction markets in Italy are back at the top of the gaming law agenda, after the Agenzia delle Dogane e dei Monopoli (ADM) ordered a fresh wave of blackouts against unlicensed online gambling and put Polymarket.com back on the list. For a vertical that generated record trading volumes worldwide only a few months ago, the message from the Italian regulator could hardly be clearer: without an Italian remote gaming license (i.e. a so-called concession), the door stays shut.
I have followed this dossier closely, and in my view the latest measure is less about a single platform than about a structural question that regulators across Europe still have not answered, namely, whether prediction markets are gambling or finance. Let me unpack what happened, what it means from a legal standpoint, and how an operator like Polymarket could realistically enter the Italian market.
ADM’s new order and why Polymarket is back on the blacklist
With a directorial order addressed to all internet service providers, ADM ordered the inhibition of 293 new domains. Among the newly targeted domains sits Polymarket, the self-described largest prediction market in the world.
The order rests on Article 102 of Law Decree No. 104/2020, which allows ADM to require ISPs to make non-compliant gambling sites unreachable by redirecting users to the Agency’s institutional page. Providers must complete the operations by 27 July 2026. The substantive basis remains Article 4 of Law No. 401/1989, which sanctions the organisation and collection of bets or games without the required Italian gambling license.
Importantly, this is Polymarket’s second Italian blackout. The platform was first inhibited on 22 October 2025; the Italian administrative court (TAR Lazio) rejected the urgent suspension request on 4 November 2025, upholding ADM’s power under Article 102. On 15 December 2025 ADM itself revoked the block and restored access, but, as I have consistently pointed out, this was not the clean judicial victory it is often described as. No decision on the merits was ever issued, and access returned only after the platform effectively switched off real-money trading for Italian users. Today the site is again unreachable, even in consultation-only mode.
Gambling or finance? The regime question at the heart of prediction markets in Italy
The qualification question is the real battleground. Prediction markets let users buy and sell binary contracts tied to the outcome of future events, with the price expressing the crowd-estimated probability. Structurally, that mechanism sits uncomfortably between two regimes.
On one reading, these are event-based betting products and therefore fall squarely within ADM’s remit and the concession system for public gaming. This is the line ADM has taken, reinforced by Italy’s long-standing prohibition on betting on political events since that is deemed to be agains the public order, which alone would carve out a meaningful share of these platforms’ offer.
On the other reading, a binary yes/no contract with a fixed payout looks a great deal like a financial derivative, closer to Italian financial authority, CONSOB’s world than to ADM’s. That is precisely the argument playing out in the United States, where the CFTC claims exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts as “swaps” and, in April 2026, the Third Circuit backed Kalshi against state gambling regulators. The European Securities and Markets Authority has separately warned that fixed-payout binary products may trigger EU restrictions on marketing binary options to retail clients. In short, the same instrument attracts two entirely different, and partly incompatible, regulatory frameworks, and Italy has not yet legislated to resolve the overlap.
How Polymarket could lawfully enter the Italian market
Setting aside the pending qualification debate, the practical question my clients ask is simple: assuming prediction markets in Italy are treated as gambling, how does an operator go legitimate? At the moment, there are two viable routes.
- The first is to obtain an Italian remote gaming licence. Italy has just closed its latest tender for licenses and a new tender is not expected any time soon. If prediction market operators want to get an Italian remote gaming license, they need to purchase it from an existing license holders. The process of selling licenses is now simpler than in the past, but it still means accepting the full weight of local obligations: AML controls, responsible gambling measures, technical certification, tax on the collection and continuous ADM oversight. It is demanding, but it is the cleanest way to remove the “unlicensed” label.
- The second route is to operate as a game supplier to an existing concessionaire, rather than holding the concession directly. Under this model the licensed operator remains the legal counterparty toward players and the regulator, while the prediction-market technology and content are supplied and certified as part of that concessionaire’s authorised offer. This is often faster to market and lighter on regulatory capital for the supplier, but it requires the offering to fit within the games the concession actually permits, and, crucially, it does not resolve the political-events prohibition or the questions around crypto and stablecoin settlement that Italian rules do not currently accommodate.
Either way, the “we are finance, not gambling” defence does not, on its own, unlock the Italian market. Until a court or the legislator settles the qualification, an operator that wants Italian traffic needs an Italian gaming title, held directly or through a concessionaire.
An international picture still in flux
The Italian move fits a wider European pattern. As I explained in my earlier analysis of prediction markets in Europe, nine regulators, including Italy, issued a rare joint statement against unlicensed platforms as the 2026 World Cup began. France, Belgium, Spain and Portugal have all restricted Polymarket, the Dutch regulator has upheld a sanction against it, while Gibraltar has gone the opposite way and launched the world’s first dedicated prediction-markets regime.
The commercial stakes explain the intensity. Global prediction-market trading volume rose from under USD 5 billion in September 2025 to roughly USD 24 billion in April 2026, with Polymarket International alone around USD 9 billion that month and the platform reportedly chasing a USD 15 billion valuation. There is also an Italian sporting dimension: Polymarket’s roughly EUR 19 million shirt deal with S.S. Lazio Serie A football team now sits awkwardly against Italy’s prohibition on advertising unlicensed betting and the 2018 Dignity Decree ban on gambling sponsorship.
There is even a neat coincidence of calendars, Italian ISPs must complete the blackout by 27 July 2026, the very date on which comments on the CFTC’s June 2026 prediction-markets rulemaking fall due. Two jurisdictions, two opposite directions of travel, on the same deadline.
Final thoughts
Prediction markets in Italy are unlikely to leave the enforcement spotlight any time soon. The qualification question remains open, ADM’s posture is firmly restrictive, and the commercial pull of the sector guarantees continued pressure, from operators, from sports rights holders and from the licensed industry demanding a level playing field.
At DLA Piper we advise operators, suppliers, concessionaires and investors on exactly these issues, from licensing strategy and betting-exchange structuring to the qualification of event-based products and their advertising and sponsorship implications. If you are assessing whether — and how — a prediction-market offering can reach the Italian market compliantly, my team and I would be glad to help you navigate the path. Feel free to reach out to me at giulio.coraggio@dlapiper.com.
On a similar topic, you may find interesting my article “Prediction Markets in Europe: Nine Regulators Warn Over the World Cup Betting Surge“.